Charles Kenny

Books, Papers and Articles

Charles Kenny writes about global development — what’s working, what isn’t, and how the world can do better. An economist who spent fifteen years at the World Bank, he is now a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC.

  • Chapter Four of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility examines the determinants of welfare –the causal factors behind changes in levels of health and violence worldwide. 

    Global average life expectancy was 24 years in 1000 AD, 31 years in 1900 and reached 66 years in 1999.  It is widely assumed that, because at any one time ‘wealthier is healthier’, income growth must be the most important causal factor in worldwide health improvements.  In fact, there is plentiful evidence suggesting otherwise.  Income may have a role, but it is not the major factor behind improved levels of global health.  For example, modern Vietnam has the same income per capita as the UK early in the Nineteenth Century.  Yet life expectancy at birth in Vietnam today is 69 years as opposed to 41 years in the UK in the 1800s. And Infant mortality is less than one quarter of the level of the UK two hundred years ago.  Furthermore, life expectancy has seen dramatic improvements even in countries that have seen zero or negative income growth over the past few deacades –Angola, Cuba and Nicaragua all followed this pattern, for example.

    Instead, the history of health suggests that technological and institutional change has been key to advance.  The British Industrial Revolution was associate with lower levels of health until massive public water and sanitation projects in the second half of the Nineteenth Century.  Filtration and chlorination then played a large role.  The spread of vaccination has proven vital in wiping out a number of major killers.  Such interventions can be achieved at low (and dropping) levels of income, with the cost of a basic package of primary health care costing less than one percent of GDP even in the poorest countries. It is primarily institutional, rather than financial, barriers that stand in the way of improved health. 

    A similar conclusion applies to levels of violence –both warfare and individual acts of murder.  Technology has been a factor beheind the growing power of the state to kill, but institutions rather than incomes appear to be more important in restraining acts of state violence.  Institutional and social change also appears to have played the larger role in increasing the efficacy of state attempts to reduce unsanctioned violence.

  • Chapter Five of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility discusses the components of dignity.  To possess dignity you must have a degree of choice and control over your life, the life that you lead must be a worthwhile one, and it must carry with it a degree of prestige.

    To preserve choice, key elements of one’s cultural identity—such as one’s religion or one’s language— should not be forced on one unwillingly from outside. There is greater dignity in marriage to a partner of one’s choice and in working at a job that one has freely contracted to perform.  Dignity is conferred by one’s degree of participation in the political arrangements under which one lives. Regarding job types, the ideal life is one in which there is no clear boundary between work and recreation and which does not require considerable physical or human apparatus to conduct. 

    Prestige is not an essential constituent of well-being; but it can undoubtedly contribute to and augment it. Prestige is based on one’s possession of goods that arouse the respect and envy of others. These need not be material goods but they are bound to be positional goods; goods that relate to one’s position in society and which of their nature cannot be universally shared, since—in the words of W.S. Gilbert—when everyone is somebody, then no one’s anybody.

    Regarding the market, the great inequalities which its free operation builds up may cause great discontent among those at the lower end of the scale, even if in absolute terms their income is enough to provide adequate welfare. Some philosophers regard inequality of wealth as being in and of itself an affront to human dignity. There is no reason, however, why someone with average wealth should feel degraded simply because some other people are very much richer. If the existence of billionaires is the price to be paid for an economic system that is the most efficient method of reducing absolute poverty, we should not oppose it simply because it may mean that a man with only two yachts will be unhappy because his neighbour possesses three.

  • Chapter Six of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility explores the role that income plays in dignity but also about the broader relationship between economic development and dignity.  Over the long term, for example, measures of civil and political rights have gone up on average worldwide.  So has income.  This has led some to suggest a link between the two.  But you don’t need high incomes to preserve rights:

    …many writers throughout history have believed that greatly increased incomes were not required in order to ensure the dignity of choice for peoples.  During the English Civil War, when incomes per capita averaged only a little above $1,000, Lilburn called for a republic with universal suffrage and equality before the law.  John Stuart Mill called for a full range of liberties including women’s equality, and was building on Mary [Wollstonecraft’s] Vindication of the Rights of Women written in the previous century.  Outside of Europe, Akhbar, the Mughal emperor in power at the turn of the Sixteenth century, issued edicts codifying rights including religious freedom from his capital at Agra.  Gandhi felt that India was quite capable of guaranteeing a full range of rights at a point when India’s GDP per capita was around $600.  More recently, a number of developing countries have developed and preserved systems that guarantee widespread civil rights at low levels of average income including Costa Rica, Botswana, South Africa and India itself.

    Perhaps because of this, the link between growth in rights and growth in incomes is statistically insignificant, with the causal link from measures of democracy to measures of economic growth turning out to be stronger.  Institutional development which leads to stable democracies that protect rights appears to be a long-term process, perhaps linked in part to colonial histories.  Similar findings pertain to education –when the process of expanding education began is a key determinant of current rollout levels, it is possible to roll out universal access to basic education at very low levels of income, rapid income growth does not appear to speed this process and, if anything, education is more strongly linked to economic performance than vice-verca.

    Regarding the quality of jobs, Adam Smith was worried that industrialization would significantly reduce it. "The man whose whole life is spent in performing a few simple operations… generally becomes as stupid and ignorant as it is possible for a human creature to become," he warned.  With the application of assembly-line techniques in services as well as manufacturing, many of today’s jobs are simple and highly repetitive.  And the new economy has done little to banish  mind-numbing employment, or reduce unemployment. 

    Finally, looking at the role of income itself as a status measure, efforts to control its impact date back at least as far as sumptuary laws, and the primacy of status over welfare concerns in the chase for money was noted (once again) by Adam Smith, who noted that the pursuit of riches was primarily driven by “regard to the sentiment of mankind… to be observed, to be attended to, to be taken notice of…" Given income is a status good, it is unsurprising that definitions of an ‘inadequate income’ rise in lock-step with average incomes in a community. As such, in all but the poorest countries, our concern with poverty should center around questions of income distribution, not absolute levels of income.

  • Chapter Seven of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility asks "do people know if they are happy?":

    If the most important elements in happiness are welfare and dignity, then individuals are not necessarily the best authorities on their own condition. We may be mistaken about the state of our bodily health,and our acquiescence in our social status may be the result of ignorance and lack of imagination. But surely each person is in the best position to say whether he or she is contented or not?

    It is wrong to suppose that each of us has access to a private realm of consciousness, from which we have to think our way out to a public world. Even in our most secret thoughts we are using a language that only makes sense in the context of social activities shared with other beings like ourselves. This applies to emotions, too –the intelligibility of their expression depends upon their behavioural and environmental context. This must be particularly borne in mind when we are considering the role of mental states in the good life, and the value to be placed on self-ascriptions of them.

    Contentment is not so much a feeling as a belief or judgement; a judgement that one’s life, considered overall, as a whole, is going well, and that one’s major desires are either satisfied or on the way to satisfaction. It is a judgement on these issues that the pollster wishes to elicit when he asks ‘taking your life as a whole, would you consider yourself very happy, somewhat happy, or not happy at all?’ The first person is certainly in a position of greater authority on the topic of contentment than she is on either the topics of welfare or of dignity. On the other hand, because an expression of contentment is a judgement about a long-term state, a person uttering it does not have the overriding authority that she would have if she were reporting a pain or narrating a dream. It is possible for a claim to contentment to be mistaken, and a person may well come to revise her own past estimates of her contentment. ‘In those days I thought I was happy. Now I know better.’ Or ‘I wish I had realised how happy I was’. Again, if someone gives a positive answer to an inquiry about his contentment, but is regularly irritable, frequently quarrels with family and friends, is constantly trying to change his job, and often exhibits symptoms of psychosomatic illness, it may not be unreasonable to discount his evidence even if given in good faith.

    Of course, not all evidence is given in good faith.  Furthermore, a positive or negative response to a standard subjective wellbeing question will depend on imagination, ambition, and character. The problem is compounded when respondents are asked not just whether they are happy or not, but where they would place themselves upon a scale of happiness from one to five, or give themselves marks out of ten for well-being. Accuracy in answering here depends not just on unbiased introspection, but some estimate of an overall standard.

    Questions regarding the accuracy of subjective wellbeing polls as a measure of contentment aside, surely the secret of contentment lies somewhere between the frenzied pursuit of every passing want and the total renunciation of desire.

  • Chapter Eight of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility explores subjective wellbeing polls ("taking your life as a whole, would you rate yourself very happy, somewhat happy, or not happy at all?"). Those who say they are happy smile more than the average person, appear happier to friends and family, have higher self-esteem, are comparatively infrequent visitors to psychotherapists and are less likely to commit suicide. They have higher than average levels of activity in the left prefrontal region in the brain,which is rich in receptors for the neurotransmitter dopamine, and they register considerably lower levels of cortisol, an adrenal hormone related to the risk of obesity, hypertension and autoimmune conditions. 

    At the same time, subjectively happy people tend (weakly) to share a set of life circumstances: they are more likely to be married, employed, religious and relatively rich.  They are also more likely to be found in countries where people trust the police and their governments. On the other hand, absolute (as opposed to relative) income doesn’t seem to matter much at all.  This finding appears to hold in middle income countries, but not amongst poorer people in poor countries

    When people face a lack of income sufficient to support the basics of welfare, then, they are less content.  But once income becomes a status marker, the income that matters is relative, not absolute.  And this happens pretty early on in the process of development. For example, real incomes per capita in China increased by a factor of 2.5 between 1994-2005, and this was associated with rapid increases in the ownership of goods—color television ownership increased from 40 to 82 percent of households, telephones from 10 to 63 percent, for example. Incomes started at a very low level, averaging $2,604 per capita. Nonetheless, the percentage of people satisfied with life declined.

    The subjective happiness literature suggests that nonpecunary goods such as insurance and leisure are not viewed purely in relative terms, so that we should focus on increasing the supply of these goods rather than income. 

    At the same time, there are limits to the policy relevance of subjective wellbeing.  The majority of variation in subjective wellbeing between people appears to be related to genetic factors rather than objective circumstances. Because of this, people lose little long-term contentment even as a result of catastrophic events that we may still want to minimize (accidents that lead to paraplegia, for example).  Furthermore, what little varaition we can correlate with factors such as unemployment and poverty may be related to reverse-causation.  Finally, the finding that having children has no impact on subjective happiness suggests that contentment lacks (even) as a overarching motivational force.

  • Chapter Nine of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility suggests that there are three elements essential to a moral system. There must be a moral community, a set of moral values, and a moral code.  Just as philosophers have disagreed about the nature of happiness, so they have disagreed about each of these elements of morality.  Are animals part of the moral community?  Is the supreme moral value happiness?  Does the code include absolute prohibitions?  On the second and third issues, we disagree with Benthamite philosophy. We believe that there are some actions, such as rape and torture, which should be ruled out without consideration of consequences. Furthermore:

    The pursuit of happiness is a right, not a compulsion or an obligation. We disagree with those who maintain that every human being, in every action, pursues his own well-being willy-nilly. We also disagree with those who believe that there is an obligation to pursue one’s own well-being that overrides all other considerations. We believe that it is possible, and may often be admirable, to cease from the quest for one’s own happiness in favour of the pursuit of some altruistic goal.

    As to the shape of that moral community, an undifferentiated concern for the general good is implausible. At the same time, it is not clear how sensible it is to defined levels of obligation of care by civic and national boundaries, many of which are accidents of history. 

    Finally, at both the national and global level, there can be no simple recipe for the maximization of happiness because of its disparate elements.  Indeed, such maximization is a chimerical goal for moral or political policy. But this does not mean that we cannot seek ever better systems of trade-offs to protect and promote the well-being of the inhabitants of the planet.

  • Chapter Ten of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Utility discusses policies at the national and international level that might increase welfare, dignity and contentment.  The chapter suggests that:

    The ‘self evident truth’ contained in the US Declaration of Independence that all men have the unalienable right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is perhaps as good a guide to the role of the state as any. The state has a primary duty to ensure that absolutely necessary to life (peace, shelter, food, sufficient measures for public health), it has a secondary duty to ensure freedom from captivity and extortion as well as sufficient means to be free to take part in society as an equal and, as a tertiary responsibility, it should put in place other conditions that allow all the possibility for achieving individual happiness (broadly defined).

    Given the limited role for GDP growth in furthering welfare, dignity and contentment in most countries, the justification for corporate welfare programs including subsidies, tax breaks and defense of private monopoly is even weaker than usually assumed.  Furthermore, actions which redistribute a fixed stock of prestige while creating significant negative externalities should be taxed.  Robert Frank provides the example of large houses sitting on larger plots which increase commute times for all.  A declining marginal utility of income suggests progressive taxation can increase average contentment as well as providing resources for improved levels of welfare and dignity. The general finding that non-rival goods such as insurance and time off may be under-supplied compared to rival goods suggests a further rationale for state sponsorship of insurance mechanisms covering events such as unemployment and health.  Regarding dignity:

    Because the evidence is against a strong tradeoff between basic human rights and economic growth or welfare there is no justification for such a tradeoff (even were it a good one to make). Indeed, because what evidence we have points the other way—civil rights improving the state’s provision of welfare—we should encourage development of such rights most particularly in the poorest countriesBecause of the importance of institutions in determining levels welfare, dignity and contentment, the role for international support might appear limited.  Having said that, we broadly accept Pogge’s argument for a globalization of Rawls‘ difference principle (that to the extent social institutions create social or economic inequalities, they should be designed to the maximum benefit to those at the bottom of these inequalities).  Our moral obligation to individuals in the developing world is to promote some basic, sustainable, minimum level of well-being.  his suggests a role for reduced barriers to trade and migration, but also increased, and far better designed, aid flows.

  • What Is Effective Aid? How Would Donors Allocate It? was issued as a World Bank Policy Research Working Paper in September, 2006.  There are significant weaknesses in some of the traditional justifications for assuming that aid will foster development. This paper looks at what the cross-country aid effectiveness literature and World Bank Operations Evaluation Department (OED) reviews have suggested about effective aid, first in terms of promoting income growth and then for promoting other goals. This review forms the basis for a discussion of recommendations to improve aid effectiveness and a discussion of effective aid allocation. Given the multiple potential objectives for aid, there is no one right answer. However, it appears that there are a number of reforms to aid practices and distribution that might help to deliver a more significant return to aid resources. We should provide aid where institutions are already strong, where they can be strengthened with the help of donor resources, or where they can be bypassed with limited damage to existing institutional capacity. The importance of institutions to aid outcomes, as well as the fungibility of aid flows, suggests that programmatic aid should be expanded in countries with strong institutions, while project aid should be supported based on its ability to transfer knowledge and test new practices and/or support global public good provision rather than (merely) as a tool of financial resource transfer. The importance of institutions also suggests that we should be cautious in our expectations regarding the results of increased aid flows.

  • Overselling the Web? Development and the Internet is being published in September 2006.  The book discusses the role of the Internet in development, and policies designed to increase its impact.  The widespread and rapid adoption of the Internet in the developing world suggests that there are real opportunities presented by the new technology.  At the same time, Overselling the Web suggests that the overall impact may be smaller than commonly thought and that policymakers should be wary of large-scale subsidies, tax breaks and rollout programs.

    Here are the preface and Chapter One.  Here's the publisher's blurb, a couple of reviews and a link to the Library Journal's 50 best business books of 2006, where it appears.  And here is a short summary article in ITID based on the book.  Chapter summaries are available in the Overselling the Web category page (look to your left).

  • Chapter One of Overselling the Web? looks at some predictions regarding the impact of the Internet on development.  George Gilder chose December 31st, 1999 most suitably to suggest the change might be millenarian:

    With any technology that will change the world so radically as the Internet… religious wars are important and inescapable….The twentieth century has been an era when an atheistic belief in the ultimacy of matter and the triviality of man led to the horrors of Nazism, Communism, and an epoch of total war. Now sweeping through the global economy, the overthrow of matter will unleash an undertow of religious belief that will make the new millennium a time of awakening to the oceanic grandeur and goodness of the universe…

    Thomas Friedman hasn’t gone quite as far, but he, too, has been pretty optimistic:   “We are now in a period of radical change, possibly more sweeping and complex than any period since 1776-1789.”  Technology, he argues, “is shrinking the world from a size medium to a size small.”  At the same time, it “turns out that the real secret of success in the information age is what it always was: fundamentals — reading, writing and arithmetic, church, synagogue and mosque, the rule of law and good governance.”  Indeed, these basics have got even more important.  “Just when the developing world is coming to really grasp that it has no choice but to get itself ready to climb aboard this train… the train is going to get faster — not slower — as the developing world moves toward Internet-based commerce, communication and learning systems. What’s worse, no one can slow the train down, because the world economy today is just like that Internet: everybody is connected but nobody is in charge.”

    The potential of the Internet as a force for development was the focus of a G-8 meeting as well as a UN Summit (in two parts).  It has catalyzed aid programs and any number of "e-readiness assessments."  All of this activity is based on what might be termed the "Okinawa Consensus":

    The Internet and related technologies present a significant opportunity for developing countries to improve their growth prospects.  Indeed, the Internet may be a ‘leapfrog’ technology –one that creates an opportunity for developing countries to catch up economically with the industrial world.  The technology is a powerful tool to improve government service delivery, education, and income-earning opportunities even for the world’s poorest people.  Given that, poor country governments (in partnership with the private sector and with the help of donors) need to dedicate significant resources to expanding the use of the Internet, especially in government and education and especially to reach the poor.  There is also a role to promote Internet industries through technology parks, and Internet use through public access programs such as putting computers in libraries and building stand-alone Internet access points. 

    Overselling the Web? is about the policies suggested, the rationale behind them, and which ones might make sense.