DEFAULT
AND RECOVERY
STATISTICS
SOVEREIGN AND
SOVEREIGN-GUARANTEED
LENDING
1984-2024
SOVEREIGN AND
SOVEREIGN-GUARANTEED
LENDING
1984-2024
DEFAULT
AND RECOVERY
STATISTICS
Multilateral development banks and development finance institutions default and recovery statistics
Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
07 October 2025
 European Investment Bank (the "Administrator"), as host and administrator for, and on behalf of, Global Emerging
Markets Risk Database Consortium ("GEMs"), 07 October 2025. GEMs is a consortium of multilateral development banks
(MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs), including, as of 07 October 2025, the African Development Bank
(AfDB), Agence Franaise de Dveloppement (AFD), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
(AIIB), Banque de Dveloppement des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale (BDEAC), Banque Ouest Africaine de Dveloppement
(BOAD), Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB), British International Investment (BII), Cassa Depositi e Prestiti
(CDP), Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB), Development
Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Investment Bank
Group (EIB), GuarantCo, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Inter-American Investment Corporation (IDB Invest),
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Fund
for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Kreditanstalt fr Wiederaufbau (KfW), Multilateral
Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), Netherlands Development Finance Company (FMO), New Development Bank
(NDB), Proparco, and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
The material in this work is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may
be a violation of applicable law. The provision and publication of this work and information do not constitute and shall not
be deemed to be a waiver of any of the privileges and immunities of any GEMs member (as applicable).
Disclaimer
Neither GEMs nor any of its members represents or warrants as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content,
conclusions, or judgments of this work. Neither GEMs nor any of its members makes any express or implied warranties,
and all warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use with respect to this work and its contents
are hereby disclaimed. Similarly, while GEMs members believe that the statistics, information and results presented in this
document are based on reasonable assumptions and methodologies, the use of other assumptions and methodologies
might lead to different conclusions.
The information, contents, results and statistics in this document differ significantly from published historical data regarding
default rates to other creditors and should not be regarded as indicative of results that other creditors may experience.
They also reflect GEMs members' historical experience, which is not necessarily indicative of future performance. While the
GEMs members may publish updated information on a discretionary basis in the future, they assume no duty to provide
such update(s).
Neither GEMs nor any of its members shall be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, direct, indirect,
incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses
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not be taken as, the views of GEMs or any GEMs member or their respective constituents.
The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any
specific purpose. All relevant parties should make lending and investment decisions based on their own independent
decisions as to whether such transactions are appropriate for them based on their own judgment and circumstances, and
with advice from advisors as they deem necessary. This work does not constitute legal, securities, investment or any other
type of advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents of
this work should not be relied upon for, without limitation, the calculation, determination or derivation of loss given default
(LGD) metrics, including, but not limited to, for any modelling or pricing purposes.
GEMs members may have an investment or other financial interest in, or provide advice or other services to, certain
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Consortium members.
pdf: QH-01-25-043-EN-N ISBN: 978-92-861-6012-7 doi: 10.2867/2100745
Printed on FSC Paper.
CONTENTS
Preface ix
1 Highlights 1
2 Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 9
2.1 Definition9
2.2 Count of observations and defaults9
2.3 Preferred creditor status10
2.4 GEMs rating for countries11
2.5 Countries in the dataset12
3 Default rate statistics 18
3.1 Default rate methodology 18
3.2 Default rates by year19
3.3 Default rates by region20
. 3.3.1 Default rates by World Bank region20
. 3.3.2 Default rates by continent 21
3.4 Default rates by income group22
3.5 Default rates by credit ratings24
. 3.5.1 Marginal default rates by credit rating category24
. 3.5.2 Cumulative default rates by credit rating category26
. 3.5.3 Marginal default rates by credit rating27
. 3.5.4 Cumulative default rates by credit rating28
4 Recovery rate statistics 29
4.1 Recovery rates by year of default30
4.2 Recovery rates by region31
. 4.2.1 Recovery rates by World Bank region31
. 4.2.2 Recovery rates by continent32
4.3 Recovery rates by income group33
5 Rating migration rate statistics 34
5.1 Annual upgrade vs. downgrade ratio34
5.2 Rating migration rates35
Preface ix
Preface
The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) is a joint initiative between the European
Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation; it was established in 2009 to pool credit risk
data. This database is a unique example of a tangible common good and is designed to catalyse investments
in emerging markets and support technical cooperation between international institutions. GEMs serves as
a discussion and collaboration forum for building technical alignment and sharing best practices among
member institutions through working-level meetings. GEMs comprises multilateral development banks (MDBs)
and development finance institutions (DFIs) with business activities in emerging markets and developing
economies.
GEMs collects de-identified data from MDBs and DFIs on their performing and non-performing exposures across
emerging markets and developing economies, based on which output statistics are produced, encompassing
default and recovery rates that are categorised by various dimensions, such as geography, sector and income
group, among others. Compiling GEMs risk statistics relies on a robust and shared methodological framework,
bringing together data and expertise from leading public institutions. GEMs offers:
9 a risk data hub of contract-level information for private and public lending and sovereign and
sovereign-guaranteed lending  one of the largest such datasets for emerging markets and developing
economies;
9 a trusted data collection and processing platform hosting a scalable data model, which could be
expanded to cover other contract-level data related to investment projects;
9 a statistical platform for member MDBs and DFIs, with the ability to calculate GEMs outputs, default
rates, recovery rates and rating migrations, facilitating better-informed investment decisions in
emerging markets and developing economies;
9 a public good data source for aggregated statistics, with the reported default and recovery rates for
private, public and sovereign/sovereign-guaranteed lending, providing an anchor for risk perceptions;
9 a framework for collaboration among member MDBs and DFIs to improve risk management practices
across the industry.
More private investment is needed to combat climate change and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
Global institutions need to work together to address some of the current barriers to these private investments.
Some key barriers include, for instance, insufficient support for preparing well-designed projects; minimal
coordination between countries and institutions to facilitate the use of public resources to mitigate risks; a lack
of an appropriate legal and contractual environment; and a shortage of standardisation, transparency and
data availability. The scarcity of data around emerging markets and developing economies, coupled with the
tightening of regulatory requirements, calls for sophisticated risk management practices and more reliable
metrics.
Through GEMs, member MDBs and DFIs address the investment gap by sharing their experience and market
knowledge among themselves and with investors and the broader public. These banks and institutions pool
their data using a harmonised template and generate more valuable statistics than those available to any
individual lending institution. GEMs is thus a comprehensive data source for current and potential investors in
emerging markets  one that helps refine risk perceptions and inform better decision-making.
The scarcity of accessible, standardised, transparent and high-quality information on investment projects in
emerging markets can skew risk perceptions and lead to suboptimal investment decisions. Institutions with
little or no experience in such markets must rely on risk assumptions based on limited public information. By
anchoring risk perceptions with actual statistics, GEMs aims to help unlock capital that can fill such investment
gaps.
The statistics produced by GEMs enable the calibration and benchmarking of internal models, leading to
efficient provisioning, greater accuracy in setting capital requirements and better-informed investment decisions.
In other words, GEMs statistics provide an objective, reliable and statistically significant basis for discussing
regulatory compliance, capital adequacy and risk management practices with auditors, rating agencies and
supervisors. Furthermore, the statistics can be a powerful tool for transparent assessment of portfolio risks when
x Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
third parties engage in risk transfer or co-financing operations with MDBs or DFIs, or in any other balance
sheet optimisation initiative  thus supporting the crowding-in of additional funding for emerging markets.
Since 2021, GEMs has shared its aggregated statistics publicly, recognising the potential value for various
stakeholders, ranging from academics to regulators and commercial entities. This report builds on past
publications, combining and offering default and recovery statistics in greater detail and reflecting the
contributing institutions' lending profiles in emerging markets and developing economies. The report discloses
statistics derived from pooled GEMs data from 1994 to 2024, provided by 11 member institutions. It also
encompasses niche features and unique insights and covers the methodological framework for generating
GEMs statistics.
Specific applications of GEMs statistics may vary across institutions. GEMs welcomes feedback from readers of
this report and looks forward to working with financial stakeholders to improve the focus and content of future
publications, aiming to support new and sustainable investment where it is most needed.
GEMs member institutions participating in this publication:
Highlights 1
1 Highlights
This GEMs publication on sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending provides statistics based on a
dataset covering a 41-year period, from 1984 to 2024. For the first time, it includes recovery rates statistics
disaggregated by the year of default, as well as default and recovery rates by continent.
Compared with the 2024 publication, the count of default events has been revised to reflect that borrowers
may default on one multilateral development bank (MDBs) while continuing to meet obligations to others.
Statistical metrics are provided on the underlying distributions of the results, enabling readers to assess the
statistical significance of the average default and recovery rates. As default rate distributions generally follow a
normal distribution, 90% confidence intervals are presented for averages. In contrast, recovery rate distributions
are heavily skewed, so percentiles are provided instead.
Figure 1 illustrates sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending to the 167 countries included in the GEMs
dataset, along with the default events they experienced. Over the 41-year observation period, 39 countries
defaulted  some more than once  and 15 countries had ongoing default events at the end of 2024.
Figure 1: Exposures and default events for countries by year
ISO code and
ISO country name
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
AF-Afghanistan
AG-Antigua and Barbuda
AL-Albania
AM-Armenia
AO-Angola
AR-Argentina
AZ-Azerbaijan
BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina
BB-Barbados
BD-Bangladesh
BF-Burkina Faso
BG-Bulgaria
BH-Bahrain
BI-Burundi
BJ-Benin
BN-Brunei Darussalam
BO-Bolivia
BR-Brazil
BS-Bahamas
BT-Bhutan
BW-Botswana
BY-Belarus
BZ-Belize
CD-Congo, The Democratic Republic of
CF-Central African Republic
CG-Congo
CI-Cte d'Ivoire
CK-Cook Islands
CL-Chile
CM-Cameroon
CN-China
CO-Colombia
CR-Costa Rica
CU-Cuba
CV-Cape Verde
CY-Cyprus
CZ-Czechia
DJ-Djibouti
DM-Dominica
DO-Dominican Republic
= no MDB exposure = partial default to MDBs
= MDB exposure, no default = default to all MDBs
2 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Figure 1: Exposures and default events for countries by year (continued)
ISO code and
ISO country name
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
DZ-Algeria
EC-Ecuador
EE-Estonia
EG-Egypt
ER-Eritrea
ET-Ethiopia
FJ-Fiji
FM-Micronesia
GA-Gabon
GD-Grenada
GE-Georgia
GH-Ghana
GM-Gambia
GN-Guinea
GQ-Equatorial Guinea
GT-Guatemala
GW-Guinea-Bissau
GY-Guyana
HN-Honduras
HR-Croatia
HT-Haiti
HU-Hungary
ID-Indonesia
IL-Israel
IN-India
IQ-Iraq
IR-Iran
JM-Jamaica
JO-Jordan
KE-Kenya
KG-Kyrgyzstan
KH-Cambodia
KI-Kiribati
KM-Comoros
KN-Saint Kitts & Nevis
KR-Korea
KZ-Kazakhstan
LA-Lao
LB-Lebanon
LC-Saint Lucia
LK-Sri Lanka
LR-Liberia
LS-Lesotho
LT-Lithuania
LV-Latvia
MA-Morocco
MD-Moldova
ME-Montenegro
MG-Madagascar
MH-Marshall Islands
MK-Macedonia
ML-Mali
MM-Myanmar
MN-Mongolia
MR-Mauritania
MU-Mauritius
MV-Maldives
MW-Malawi
MX-Mexico
MY-Malaysia
MZ-Mozambique
NA-Namibia
NC-New Caledonia
NE-Niger
= no MDB exposure = partial default to MDBs
= MDB exposure, no default = default to all MDBs
Highlights 3
Figure 1: Exposures and default events for countries by year (continued)
ISO code and
ISO country name
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
NG-Nigeria
NI-Nicaragua
NP-Nepal
NR-Nauru
OM-Oman
PA-Panama
PE-Peru
PF-French Polynesia
PG-Papua New Guinea
PH-Philippines
PK-Pakistan
PL-Poland
PS-Palestinian Territory
PW-Palau
PY-Paraguay
QA-Qatar
RO-Romania
RS-Republic of Serbia
RU-Russia
RW-Rwanda
SA-Saudi Arabia
SB-Solomon Islands
SC-Seychelles
SD-Sudan
SI-Slovenia
SK-Slovakia
SL-Sierra Leone
SN-Senegal
SO-Somalia
SR-Suriname
SS-South Sudan
ST-Sao Tome and Principe
SV-El Salvador
SX-Sint Maarten
SY-Syrian Arab Republic
SZ-Swaziland
TD-Chad
TG-Togo
TH-Thailand
TJ-Tajikistan
TL-Timor-Leste
TM-Turkmenistan
TN-Tunisia
TO-Tonga
TR-Turkey
TT-Trinidad and Tobago
TV-Tuvalu
TZ-Tanzania
UA-Ukraine
UG-Uganda
UY-Uruguay
UZ-Uzbekistan
VC-Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
VE-Venezuela
VG-Virgin Islands
VN-Vietnam
VU-Vanuatu
WS-Samoa
XK-Kosovo (temporary code)
YE-Yemen
ZA-South Africa
ZM-Zambia
ZW-Zimbabwe
= no MDB exposure = partial default to MDBs
= MDB exposure, no default = default to all MDBs
4 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Figure 2 shows the number of countries in default with at least one MDB for each year of the 41-year
observation period. The relatively high number of countries in default during the late 1980s and 1990s was
followed by a significant decline throughout the 2000s and 2010s. However, an upward trend has been
observed since 2022.
Figure 2: Number of countries in default by year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Number of countries
Figure 3 displays the number of countries in default as a percentage of total countries in the GEMs dataset.
The graph closely mirrors the shape of Figure 2 but shows a lower peak in the later years, since the dataset
includes more countries during those years.
Figure 3: Percentage of countries in default by year
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Percentage of Countries
Highlights 5
Based on observed defaults for countries over the 1984-2024 period, Table 1 shows an average annual
default rate of 0.77%. This represents a decrease from the 1.06% reported in the 2024 publication, primarily
due to a revised methodology for counting defaults, which is explained in detail in Section 3.2. Additionally,
the table presents the range of annual observations and the 90% confidence interval for the average.
Table 1: Overall default rate
Unique
countries
Signed
amount
 million
Observed
years
Observaons Defaults
Minimum
annual
default
rate
Maximum
annual
default
rate
Average
annual
default
rate
Lower of
90%
confidence
interval
Upper of
90%
confidence
interval
167 1 723 368 41 4 889 37.8 0.00% 4.82% 0.77% 0.51% 1.03%
Figure 4 displays the 41 individual annual default rates, with further detail provided in Table 8. Some of the
annual default rates are 0.00%, while others are relatively high, reflecting the uneven distribution of defaults
across the years. The range and 90% confidence interval shown in Table 1  0.00% to 4.82% and 0.51% to
1.03%, respectively  are relatively wide because of the overall scarcity of default events.
Figure 4 also provides average default rates for each of the last four decades. Relatively high annual default
rates are observed in the late 1980s and, to a lesser extent, in the 1990s, followed by lower rates through
2021. However, an increase in default rates since 2022 has reversed this downward trend in the most recent
ten-year average.
Figure 4: Default rates and averages by ten-year periods
6 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Figure 5 displays default rates by GEMs credit rating, with further details provided in Section 3.4. These rates
are significantly lower than those observed by credit rating agencies for sovereign borrowings from non-MDB
lenders. Even for the selective default (SD) rating  which indicates that a country is already in default with other
lenders  the observed default rate for MDBs is only 10.0%.
Figure 5: One-year default rates by credit rating
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
AAA
AA+
AA
AA-
A+
A
A-
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BB+
BB
BB-
B+
B
B-
CCC+
CCC
CCC-
CC
C
SD
Not rated
Observed one-year default rate
GEMs credit rating
Default rate by GEMs rating Average default rate
Table 2 shows the overall statistics for recovery rates. An average recovery rate of 95.1% is observed based
on 46 default events in 30 unique countries. Unresolved default events are not included in the recovery rate
statistics. The table also shows the range of results (from 47.1% to 100.0%) and the recovery levels for different
percentiles of the distribution.
Table 2: Overall average recovery rates
Unique
countries
Default
events
Average
recovery
rate
Minimum
observaon
10th
Percenle
25th
Percenle
Median
75th
Percenle
90th
Percenle
Maximum
observaon
30 46 95.1% 47.1% 88.5% 95.6% 98.1% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0%
Table 3 and Figure 6 provide additional insight into the distribution of recovery rates by showing how many
individual observations fall within each 10-percentage-point range. Most of the results (89.1%) fall within the
90% to 100% range.
Table 3: Distribution of recovery rates
From 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
To 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 41 46
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 2.2% 89.1% 100%
Recovery
rate
Total
Defaults
% of total
Highlights 7
Figure 6: Distribution of recovery rates
Further insight into the distribution of recovery rates within the 90% and 100% range is provided by breaking
this interval into 1-percentage-point increments, as shown in Table 4 and Figure 7. This analysis reveals that
61.0% of default events have recovery rates above 98% and that 46.3% have recovery rates exceeding 99%.
Table 4: Distribution of recovery rates  detail for 90% to 100%
From 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
To 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100%
1 1 0 2 1 3 3 5 6 19 41
2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 4.9% 2.4% 7.3% 7.3% 12.2% 14.6% 46.3% 100%
Defaults
% of total
Recovery
rate
Total
Figure 7: Distribution of recovery rates  detail for 90% to 100%
8 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Table 5 and Figure 8 present data on the duration of default events. While about one-third of default events
last one year or less, and over two-thirds are concluded within five years, a few cases extend significantly
longer, with the longest one lasting more than 20 years. The median time to resolution is three years.
Table 5: Time to resolution of defaults
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 >=20
15 4 4 7 2 3 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 46
33% 41% 50% 65% 70% 76% 85% 87% 89% 91% 91% 91% 91% 93% 96% 98% 98% 98% 98% 100%
Resolution of default during year
Total
Annual
resolutions
Cumulative %
resolved
Figure 8: Time to resolution of defaults
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 9
2 Characteristics of sovereign and
sovereign-guaranteed lending
2.1 Definition
Data on sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending are provided by GEMs institutions that are exclusively
multilateral development banks (MDBs). This lending includes direct lending to sovereign countries and lending
to their states, institutions or agencies, with an explicit sovereign guarantee to ensure payments if individual
borrowers default.
All lending operations within a country, as considered in this publication, are connected via contractual
cross-default clauses within each MDB. Furthermore, if a sovereign falls into arrears on any single operation,
sanctions are applied to all operations of a sovereign simultaneously, regardless of whether the others are in
arrears.
To reflect the specific format of this lending, the following methodology is used in this publication:
 Default events are defined as payment delays on any operation that exceed the most severe sanction
trigger applicable to each respective MDB, typically set at 180 days of payment delay.
 Resolution of default events occurs only when all overdue amounts  including principal, interest and
any applicable charges  on all loans associated with the defaulting sovereign are fully paid.
2.2 Count of observations and defaults
Default rates among the individual contributing institutions range from 0.00% to 0.92%, with an observation-
weighted average of 0.59%. Across the 11 MDBs, there were 65 default events recorded over 11 010 annual
country-level observations.
Because countries often borrow from several MDBs, some defaults and observations overlap across institutions.
To address these duplicates, GEMs applies a specific methodology:
 Observations: One observation is counted per country per year, provided the country is not in default
with any MDB on 1 January of that year. This approach reduces the number of observations from 11
010 to 4 889, as shown in Table 1.
 Defaults: For each country and year, the default count is calculated as the ratio between the number
of MDBs the country has defaulted on and the number of MDBs it has borrowed from. If a country
defaults to an additional MDB in subsequent years, then the additional defaults are counted in the
ratio for those years. This method reduces the number of defaults from 65 to 37.8, as shown in
Table 1.
Note that this methodology differs from the approach used in the 2024 GEMs publication on sovereign and
sovereign-guaranteed lending. Previously, a default was counted as soon as a country defaulted on any MDB,
regardless of whether it defaulted on others. This earlier method did not accurately capture cases where
countries did not default across all MDBs during the same year. As a result, the previous approach yielded an
average default rate of 1.06%, which fell outside the range of 0.00% to 0.95% for the individual MDBs (see
Tables 1 and 6 in the 2024 publication).
10 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
2.3 Preferred creditor status
The statistics in this publication show significantly lower default and recovery rates compared to other
publications on sovereign lending, such as those based on databases maintained by credit rating agencies for
lending by institutions except MDBs.
This superior performance is largely attributable to the unique features of MDBs. These institutions benefit from
stringent arrears policies, strong shareholding structures and a preferred creditor status for their sovereign and
sovereign-guaranteed loans.
Preferred creditor status is a well-established convention under which MDBs are given priority for debt
repayment when a country faces financial distress. Although not legally binding, it has been a cornerstone for
MDBs, allowing them to operate with low losses. The principle entails the following expectations:
Countries commit to the timely payment of their financial obligations to MDBs.
 Countries commit to exempt MDBs from generalised payment moratoria and exchange rate controls.
 The International Monetary Fund typically requires that preferred creditor status be extended to itself
and to MDBs with global membership as a condition for providing funding to a country in crisis.
 MDBs are exempt from participating in sovereign debt rescheduling. This benefit is granted by
official creditors under the Paris Club and documented in the Paris Club Agreed Minutes. Under this
exemption, MDBs are also not subject to the "comparability of treatment" clause, which requires all
creditors to seek rescheduling terms comparable with those agreed by the Paris Club.
 Under the Group of 20's Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI (Debt Service
Suspension Initiative), debt with MDBs is excluded from the comparable treatment requirements
applied to official bilateral creditors and private creditors. Instead, MDBs are encouraged to develop
options to help meet countries' longer-term financing needs while protecting their current credit
ratings and access to low-cost funding.
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 11
2.4 GEMs rating for countries
The GEMs rating for countries (as shown in Table 6) is not collected from the member institutions. Instead,
it is calculated as the average of ratings for countries by the major credit rating agencies (S&P
, Moody's and
Fitch). This approach ensures consistency in the rating scale across the MDBs contributing data to GEMs. In
cases where ratings from these agencies are unavailable, ratings from the Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD) are used as an alternative. If OECD ratings are also unavailable, then
World Risk Review ratings are applied. Countries for which none of these ratings are available are classified
as not rated (NR).
Table 6: Mapping of ratings
GEMs scale S&P Moody's Fitch OECD WRR
AAA AAA Aaa AAA
AA+ AA+ Aa1 AA+ 0.1 1
AA AA Aa2 AA
AA- AA- Aa3 AA-
A+ A+ A1 A+ 1 2
A A A2 A
A- A- A3 A- 2
BBB+ BBB+ Baa1 BBB+ 3
BBB BBB Baa2 BBB
BBB- BBB- Baa3 BBB- 3 4
BB+ BB+ Ba1 BB+
BB BB Ba2 BB 4
BB- BB- Ba3 BB- 5
B+ B+ B1 B+ 5
B B B2 B 6
B- B- B3 B- 6
CCC+ CCC+ Caa1 CCC+ 7
CCC CCC Caa2 CCC
CCC- CCC- Caa3 CCC- 7 8
CC CC CC
C C C 9
SD SD Ca/C SD 10
NR NR NR NR NR NR
12 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Figure 9: Dataset composition by rating category  country count
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Number of active countries
AA A BBB BB B CCC CC/C SD NR
Figure 10: Dataset composition by rating category  percentage of total number of countries
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Percentage of active countries
AA A BBB BB B CCC CC/C SD NR
2.5 Countries in the dataset
As detailed in Table 7, the dataset includes 167 countries, though not all were active throughout the entire 41-
year period covered by this publication. In addition to indicating the years that a country has been part of the
GEMs dataset, the table details the number of GEMs institutions that have provided lending to each country;
the region and continent to which each country is assigned; the cumulative signed amount of lending from
MDBs; and the first year a GEMs rating was assigned to the country.
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 13
Table 7: Dataset information for included countries
ISO
country
code
ISO country name World Bank region Continent
Number of
MDBs with
lending
Signed amount
 million
Outstanding
31 Dec. 2024
 million
First year in
dataset
Last year in
dataset
First year of
GEMs rating
AF Afghanistan South Asia Asia 2 793.0 566.7 2005 2024 1999
AG Antigua and Barbuda Latin America & Caribbean North America 2 17.2 3.8 1995 2024 1999
AL Albania Europe & Central Asia Europe 5 3 169.2 1 534.3 1994 2024 1999
AM Armenia Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 2 568.0 1 795.6 1993 2024 1999
AO Angola Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 10 018.5 5 568.7 1984 2024 1999
AR Argentina Latin America & Caribbean South America 5 87 104.1 28 075.0 1984 2024 1986
AZ Azerbaijan Europe & Central Asia Europe 5 6 950.2 3 230.2 1994 2024 1999
BA Bosnia and Herzegovina Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 4 619.6 2 120.0 1984 2024 1999
BB Barbados Latin America & Caribbean North America 3 1 960.5 1 079.3 1984 2024 1994
BD Bangladesh South Asia Asia 6 42 157.1 23 199.5 1984 2024 1999
BF Burkina Faso Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 1 443.3 720.8 1984 2024 1999
BG Bulgaria Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 3 597.8 515.0 1991 2024 1996
BH Bahrain Middle East & North Africa Asia 1 1 049.4 386.1 1997 2024 1996
BI Burundi Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 2 135.2 95.7 1984 2024 2007
BJ Benin Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 1 336.0 627.5 1984 2024 1999
BN Brunei Darussalam East Asia & Pacific Asia 1 4.6 - 2005 2011 1999
BO Bolivia Latin America & Caribbean South America 4 9 519.2 5 161.3 1984 2024 1998
BR Brazil Latin America & Caribbean South America 5 115 030.2 31 379.0 1984 2024 1986
BS Bahamas Latin America & Caribbean North America 3 1 654.5 959.4 1984 2024 1997
BT Bhutan South Asia Asia 2 1 139.4 713.1 1984 2024 1999
BW Botswana Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 3 249.8 1 423.4 1984 2024 1999
BY Belarus Europe & Central Asia Europe 1 2 111.7 937.4 1993 2024 1999
BZ Belize Latin America & Caribbean North America 5 583.2 209.2 1984 2024 1999
CD Congo, The Democratic Republic of Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 601.1 84.5 1984 2024 1999
CF Central African Republic Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 1 35.1 17.0 1984 2024 1999
CG Congo Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 1 651.9 655.1 1984 2024 1999
CI Cte d'Ivoire Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 6 8 407.9 2 365.3 1984 2024 1999
CK Cook Islands East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 141.8 100.7 2009 2024 1998
CL Chile Latin America & Caribbean South America 2 13 739.5 2 912.5 1984 2024 1992
14 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Table 7: Dataset information for included countries (continued)
ISO
country
code
ISO country name World Bank region Continent
Number of
MDBs with
lending
Signed amount
 million
Outstanding
31 Dec. 2024
 million
First year in
dataset
Last year in
dataset
First year of
GEMs rating
CM Cameroon Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 5 5 932.6 2 442.2 1984 2024 1999
CN China East Asia & Pacific Asia 6 100 576.7 39 700.3 1984 2024 1988
CO Colombia Latin America & Caribbean South America 4 61 158.3 27 283.8 1984 2024 1993
CR Costa Rica Latin America & Caribbean North America 4 11 656.7 4 443.0 1984 2024 1997
CU Cuba Latin America & Caribbean North America 2 90.8 42.6 2013 2024 1999
CV Cape Verde Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 542.5 333.4 1984 2024 1999
CY Cyprus Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 1 351.3 283.1 1984 2024 1994
CZ Czechia Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 981.0 379.4 1991 2024 1993
DJ Djibouti Middle East & North Africa Asia 2 216.8 108.2 1984 2024 2009
DM Dominica Latin America & Caribbean North America 3 16.2 0.6 1984 2024 2009
DO Dominican Republic Latin America & Caribbean North America 5 16 059.1 6 555.1 1984 2024 1997
DZ Algeria Middle East & North Africa Africa 3 9 421.5 690.0 1984 2024 1999
EC Ecuador Latin America & Caribbean South America 4 25 394.6 14 959.6 1984 2024 1997
EE Estonia Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 373.8 200.0 1992 2024 1997
EG Egypt Middle East & North Africa Africa 6 36 187.7 17 443.6 1984 2024 1996
ER Eritrea Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 2 43.5 18.2 1994 2024 2007
ET Ethiopia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 883.9 576.1 1984 2024 1999
FJ Fiji East Asia & Pacific Oceania 5 1 137.3 809.7 1984 2024 1999
FM Micronesia, Federated States of East Asia & Pacific Oceania 1 74.5 32.0 2005 2024 2009
GA Gabon Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 5 3 765.2 1 580.8 1984 2024 1999
GD Grenada Latin America & Caribbean North America 3 55.0 18.1 1995 2024 2002
GE Georgia Europe & Central Asia Europe 6 6 971.7 4 641.6 1997 2024 1999
GH Ghana Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 885.4 236.2 1984 2024 1999
GM Gambia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 365.5 283.6 1984 2024 1999
GN Guinea Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 1 403.3 785.1 1984 2024 1999
GQ Equatorial Guinea Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 2 128.9 32.2 1984 2024 2000
GT Guatemala Latin America & Caribbean North America 4 12 313.6 4 018.6 1984 2024 1997
GW Guinea-Bissau Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 2 76.3 36.7 1984 2024 1999
GY Guyana Latin America & Caribbean South America 5 1 718.5 870.6 1984 2024 1999
HN Honduras Latin America & Caribbean North America 5 9 691.4 5 035.5 1984 2024 1998
HR Croatia Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 6 766.1 2 025.1 1984 2024 1997
HT Haiti Latin America & Caribbean North America 1 72.8 32.1 1984 2024 2000
HU Hungary Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 7 912.6 907.7 1984 2024 1989
ID Indonesia East Asia & Pacific Asia 6 93 246.5 37 099.9 1984 2024 1992
IL Israel Middle East & North Africa Asia 1 273.4 - 1984 1997 1988
IN India South Asia Asia 6 145 315.8 60 897.9 1984 2024 1988
IQ Iraq Middle East & North Africa Asia 2 5 014.9 2 700.2 1984 2024 1999
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 15
Table 7: Dataset information for included countries (continued)
ISO
country
code
ISO country name World Bank region Continent
Number of
MDBs with
lending
Signed amount
 million
Outstanding
31 Dec. 2024
 million
First year in
dataset
Last year in
dataset
First year of
GEMs rating
IR Iran, Islamic Republic of Middle East & North Africa Asia 2 5 504.3 902.4 1984 2024 1999
JM Jamaica Latin America & Caribbean North America 3 6 613.0 2 359.6 1984 2024 1998
JO Jordan Middle East & North Africa Asia 5 12 630.7 5 866.7 1984 2024 1995
KE Kenya Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 6 236.4 3 813.3 1984 2024 1999
KG Kyrgyzstan Europe & Central Asia Asia 6 1 654.3 890.8 1984 2024 1999
KH Cambodia East Asia & Pacific Asia 4 4 098.8 2 252.3 1996 2024 2007
KI Kiribati East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 50.6 30.0 1999 2024 2009
KM Comoros Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 2 41.0 26.3 1984 2024 2009
KN Saint Kitts & Nevis Latin America & Caribbean North America 2 28.5 - 1991 2020 2000
KR Korea, Republic of East Asia & Pacific Asia 2 22 813.7 - 1984 2013 1986
KZ Kazakhstan Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 14 472.6 6 482.6 1993 2024 1996
LA Lao, People's Democratic Republic East Asia & Pacific Asia 4 2 673.8 1 365.2 1984 2024 2000
LB Lebanon Middle East & North Africa Asia 4 5 668.3 1 345.3 1984 2024 1997
LC Saint Lucia Latin America & Caribbean North America 2 78.6 7.1 1986 2024 2018
LK Sri Lanka South Asia Asia 5 17 496.1 10 621.0 1984 2024 1999
LR Liberia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 306.9 92.0 1984 2024 1999
LS Lesotho Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 400.6 84.4 1984 2024 1999
LT Lithuania Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 1 400.9 654.6 1992 2024 1996
LV Latvia Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 987.1 10.4 1992 2024 1997
MA Morocco Middle East & North Africa Africa 5 44 962.4 17 182.1 1984 2024 1998
MD Moldova, Republic of Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 1 897.4 802.0 1993 2024 1997
ME Montenegro Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 2 115.4 752.9 2001 2024 2004
MG Madagascar Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 632.5 347.9 1984 2024 1999
MH Marshall Islands East Asia & Pacific Oceania 1 70.2 24.1 2001 2024 2018
MK Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic Of Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 3 674.6 1 024.3 1984 2024 2004
ML Mali Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 1 094.8 587.2 1984 2024 1999
MM Myanmar East Asia & Pacific Asia 2 3 738.9 1 045.1 1984 2024 1999
MN Mongolia East Asia & Pacific Asia 5 3 410.4 1 975.2 1996 2024 1999
MR Mauritania Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 913.2 352.6 1984 2024 1999
MU Mauritius Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 2 320.2 747.7 1984 2024 1996
MV Maldives South Asia Asia 5 500.7 235.8 1984 2024 1999
MW Malawi Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 619.8 287.2 1984 2024 1999
MX Mexico Latin America & Caribbean North America 4 97 836.8 27 004.4 1984 2024 1990
MY Malaysia East Asia & Pacific Asia 3 6 928.9 9.9 1984 2024 1986
MZ Mozambique Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 835.2 446.5 1984 2024 1999
NA Namibia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 1 956.3 984.9 1994 2024 2005
NC New Caledonia East Asia & Pacific Oceania 1 20.0 10.6 2014 2024 Not rated
16 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Table 7: Dataset information for included countries (continued)
ISO
country
code
ISO country name World Bank region Continent
Number of
MDBs with
lending
Signed amount
 million
Outstanding
31 Dec. 2024
 million
First year in
dataset
Last year in
dataset
First year of
GEMs rating
NE Niger Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 932.5 426.0 1984 2024 1999
NG Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 5 14 657.6 3 357.3 1984 2024 1999
NI Nicaragua Latin America & Caribbean North America 5 7 903.0 4 721.7 1984 2024 1998
NP Nepal South Asia Asia 4 10 455.9 4 629.5 1984 2024 1999
NR Nauru East Asia & Pacific Oceania 1 4.4 - 1999 2013 Not rated
OM Oman Middle East & North Africa Asia 2 1 592.9 991.7 1984 2024 1996
PA Panama Latin America & Caribbean North America 4 14 211.4 6 733.1 1984 2024 1997
PE Peru Latin America & Caribbean South America 4 32 289.0 9 150.2 1984 2024 1996
PF French Polynesia East Asia & Pacific Oceania 1 7.5 5.1 2012 2024 Not rated
PG Papua New Guinea East Asia & Pacific Oceania 4 5 481.6 2 835.0 1984 2024 1998
PH Philippines East Asia & Pacific Asia 5 56 505.4 32 365.4 1984 2024 1993
PK Pakistan South Asia Asia 6 59 401.3 26 844.6 1984 2024 1994
PL Poland Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 17 319.6 5 999.3 1990 2024 1995
PS Palestine, State of* Middle East & North Africa Asia 2 183.1 14.6 1995 2024 2009
PW Palau East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 148.0 110.6 2006 2024 Not rated
PY Paraguay Latin America & Caribbean South America 4 9 216.8 4 755.2 1984 2024 1995
QA Qatar Middle East & North Africa Asia 1 0.3 - 2005 2013 1996
RO Romania Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 18 779.5 5 878.0 1984 2024 1996
RS Republic of Serbia Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 13 162.8 4 730.5 1984 2024 1999
RU Russia Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 15 904.0 1 188.5 1992 2024 1996
RW Rwanda Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 584.5 296.8 1984 2024 1999
SA Saudi Arabia Middle East & North Africa Asia 2 242.7 128.2 1999 2024 1996
SB Solomon Islands East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 255.0 114.9 1984 2024 2000
SC Seychelles Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 484.2 305.3 1984 2024 1973
SD Sudan Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 3 984.6 610.2 1984 2024 1999
SI Slovenia Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 498.3 102.2 1984 2024 1996
SK Slovakia Europe & Central Asia Europe 2 1 517.7 875.3 1991 2024 1994
SL Sierra Leone Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 396.8 236.0 1984 2024 2000
SN Senegal Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 5 5 428.4 3 058.3 1984 2024 1999
SO Somalia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 1 14.2 1.6 1984 2024 1999
SR Suriname Latin America & Caribbean South America 4 1 659.5 1 028.9 1985 2024 1999
SS South Sudan Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 1 1.6 0.8 2021 2024 2013
ST Sao Tome and Principe Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 2 43.2 29.5 1984 2024 2000
SV El Salvador Latin America & Caribbean North America 5 14 564.4 5 418.3 1984 2024 1996
SX Sint Maarten Latin America & Caribbean North America 1 44.2 46.2 2019 2024 2020
SY Syrian Arab Republic Middle East & North Africa Asia 4 2 126.1 898.1 1984 2024 1999
SZ Swaziland Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 1 189.9 473.4 1984 2024 2007
*This designation shall not be construed as recognition of a State of Palestine and is without prejudice to the individual positions of the Member States on this issue.
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 17
Table 7: Dataset information for included countries (continued)
ISO
country
code
ISO country name World Bank region Continent
Number of
MDBs with
lending
Signed amount
 million
Outstanding
31 Dec. 2024
 million
First year in
dataset
Last year in
dataset
First year of
GEMs rating
TD Chad Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 868.6 388.7 1984 2024 1999
TG Togo Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 543.7 138.4 1984 2024 1999
TH Thailand East Asia & Pacific Asia 3 10 775.0 1 567.5 1984 2024 1989
TJ Tajikistan Europe & Central Asia Asia 5 1 286.8 571.6 1997 2024 1999
TL Timor-Leste East Asia & Pacific Asia 2 483.3 142.1 2012 2024 2013
TM Turkmenistan Europe & Central Asia Asia 3 1 480.8 1 225.9 1994 2024 1997
TN Tunisia Middle East & North Africa Africa 5 31 949.4 8 713.3 1984 2024 1995
TO Tonga East Asia & Pacific Oceania 3 71.4 26.3 1984 2024 2009
TR Trkiye Europe & Central Asia Europe 6 81 240.7 20 045.2 1984 2024 1992
TT Trinidad and Tobago Latin America & Caribbean North America 3 2 327.1 647.4 1984 2024 1993
TV Tuvalu East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 4.1 1.7 2004 2024 2009
TZ Tanzania, United Republic of Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 2 438.0 964.0 1984 2024 1999
UA Ukraine Europe & Central Asia Europe 3 30 795.9 19 120.2 1993 2024 1998
UG Uganda Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 1 567.7 953.9 1984 2024 1999
UY Uruguay Latin America & Caribbean South America 3 14 191.0 4 961.9 1984 2024 1993
UZ Uzbekistan Europe & Central Asia Asia 6 18 853.6 11 760.8 1993 2024 1999
VC Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Latin America & Caribbean North America 2 31.4 - 1989 2022 1999
VE Venezuela Latin America & Caribbean South America 3 10 272.5 1 944.1 1984 2024 1973
VG Virgin Islands, British Latin America & Caribbean North America 1 5.5 - 1994 2013 Not rated
VN Vietnam East Asia & Pacific Asia 4 17 942.3 9 057.2 1984 2024 1997
VU Vanuatu East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 83.1 47.7 1999 2024 2009
WS Samoa East Asia & Pacific Oceania 2 214.8 89.6 1984 2024 2009
XK Kosovo (temporary code) Europe & Central Asia Europe 4 524.8 213.5 2001 2024 2011
YE Yemen Middle East & North Africa Asia 1 242.7 167.1 1990 2024 1999
ZA South Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 13 351.7 7 804.9 1984 2024 1994
ZM Zambia Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 2 086.1 655.6 1984 2024 1999
ZW Zimbabwe Sub-Saharan Africa Africa 4 1 995.3 773.2 1984 2024 1999
Total 1 723 368.1 664 905.2
18 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
3 Default rate statistics
3.1 Default rate methodology
The annual default rates and their averages and confidence intervals presented in this publication are derived
for the respective dimensions and categories using the equations below:
The default count for each year is calculated as:
Equation 1: Default count for year i
Where:
d
i
= Number of new defaults of countries during year i
w
j
= Number of performing countries as of 1 January of year i
MDBd
i,j
= Number of MDBs that country j defaulted to during year i
MDBn
i,j
= Number of MDBs with lending to country j as of 1 January of year i
Annual default rates are averaged using the number of performing countries as of 1 January each year as
weights:
Equation 2: Annual default rate for year i
Where:
d
i
= Number of new defaults of countries during year i
w
i
= Number of performing countries as of 1 January of year i
Annual default rates are averaged using the number of performing countries as of 1 January each year as
weights:
Equation 3: Average annual default rate
Where:
N = Number of years
Standard deviations of annual default rates are calculated using the number of performing countries as of 1
January each year as weights:
Equation 4: Standard deviation of annual default rates
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 19
Assuming default rates are normally distributed, the confidence intervals around the averages are determined
as:
Equation 5: Confidence intervals for annual default rates
Where:
z* = z* -value from the standard normal distribution for the chosen confidence interval
3.2 Default rates by year
The 41 individual annual default rates range from 0.00% to 4.82%, as the observed defaults are not distributed
evenly over the 41-year period.
Table 8: Default rates by year
Year Defaults
Active
countries
Default rate Year Defaults
Active
countries
Default rate
1984 0.5 83 0.60% 2005 0.0 117 0.00%
1985 0.0 83 0.00% 2006 1.0 121 0.83%
1986 1.5 84 1.79% 2007 0.0 140 0.00%
1987 4.0 83 4.82% 2008 0.0 141 0.00%
1988 1.5 82 1.83% 2009 0.0 142 0.00%
1989 1.5 80 1.88% 2010 0.0 147 0.00%
1990 1.5 78 1.92% 2011 0.0 147 0.00%
1991 0.3 79 0.42% 2012 1.5 147 1.02%
1992 3.0 84 3.57% 2013 1.0 146 0.68%
1993 2.5 93 2.69% 2014 1.0 143 0.70%
1994 1.0 97 1.03% 2015 0.0 142 0.00%
1995 0.0 102 0.00% 2016 0.0 140 0.00%
1996 0.0 106 0.00% 2017 0.0 150 0.00%
1997 0.3 106 0.31% 2018 1.3 152 0.82%
1998 2.0 105 1.90% 2019 0.0 152 0.00%
1999 0.3 106 0.31% 2020 0.0 153 0.00%
2000 2.2 108 2.01% 2021 0.0 153 0.00%
2001 1.7 106 1.57% 2022 3.7 154 2.38%
2002 0.3 112 0.30% 2023 1.8 148 1.24%
2003 0.7 115 0.58% 2024 1.3 146 0.91%
2004 0.3 116 0.29% Total 37.8 4 889 0.77%
20 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
3.3 Default rates by region
3.3.1 Default rates by World Bank region
The World Bank Group classification of countries to regions is used for the statistics shown in this section.
Assignments of individual countries to regions can be found in Table 7.
Table 9: Default rates by World Bank region
World Bank region
Unique
countries
Observed
years
Number of
defaults
Number of
observations
Signed
amount
 million
Lower of 90%
confidence
interval
Average
default rate
Upper of 90%
confidence
interval
East Asia & Pacific 28 41 3.5 664 330 963 0.06% 0.53% 1.00%
Europe & Central Asia 31 41 2.8 909 274 939 0.00% 0.31% 0.76%
Latin America & Caribbean 35 41 10.5 1 216 579 108 0.43% 0.86% 1.29%
Middle East & North Africa 17 41 5.0 456 157 267 0.35% 1.10% 1.85%
South Asia 8 41 0.5 254 277 259 0.00% 0.20% 0.48%
Sub-Saharan Africa 48 41 15.4 1 390 103 832 0.63% 1.11% 1.59%
Overall 167 41 37.8 4 889 1 723 368 0.51% 0.77% 1.03%
Figure 11: Default rates by World Bank region
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 21
3.3.2 Default rates by continent
Table 10 and Figure 12 show the recovery rates by continent. (See Table 7 for the assignment of individual
countries to continents.)
Table 10: Default rates by continent
Continent
Unique
countries
Observed
years
Number of
defaults
Number of
observations
Signed
amount
 million
Lower of 90%
confidence
interval
Average
default rate
Upper of 90%
confidence
interval
Africa 52 41 15.4 1 554 226 353 0.57% 0.99% 1.41%
Asia 38 41 7.0 1 008 658 478 0.29% 0.69% 1.10%
Europe 27 41 2.8 813 251 664 0.00% 0.35% 0.83%
North America 23 41 5.5 744 197 815 0.17% 0.74% 1.31%
Oceania 15 41 2.0 298 7 764 0.00% 0.67% 1.47%
South America 12 41 5.0 472 381 293 0.40% 1.06% 1.72%
Overall 167 41 37.8 4 889 1 723 368 0.51% 0.77% 1.03%
Figure 12: Default rates by continent
22 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
3.4 Default rates by income group
The World Bank Group's historical income classification database has been used to assign countries to income
groups for the year in which each default occurred. For this analysis, the number of observed years is reduced
to 38, as historical income group data are only available from 1987 onward. Two countries in the dataset are
currently not categorised by the World Bank Group.
Note that the signed amounts and the count of unique countries shown in this section reflect income group
classifications as of the end of 2024.
Table 11: Default rates by income group at time of default
Income group at time of
default
Unique
countries
Observed
years
Number of
defaults
Number of
observations
Signed
amount
 million
Lower of 90%
confidence
interval
Average
default rate
Upper of 90%
confidence
interval
High income 36 38 - 468 153 929 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Upper middle income 52 38 8.2 1 361 928 416 0.24% 0.60% 0.96%
Lower middle income 51 38 14.6 1 704 613 955 0.49% 0.86% 1.22%
Low income 25 38 11.5 1 040 16 129 0.54% 1.11% 1.67%
Not available 3 33 3.5 309 10 272 0.00% 1.13% 2.56%
Overall 167 41 37.8 4 889 1 723 368 0.51% 0.77% 1.03%
Figure 13: Dataset composition over time by income group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Percentage of active countries
High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Not available
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 23
Figure 14: Default rates by income group at time of default
24 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
3.5 Default rates by credit ratings
The calculation of default rates by credit rating for sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending in GEMs
follows a static cohort approach. Under this method, cohorts of countries with the same credit rating are
established as of 1 January each year. The default behaviour of countries within each cohort is then tracked
through the end of the observation period.
This approach has been selected because it reflects the typical lending structure of multilateral development
banks (MDBs) to developing countries. At any given time, multiple loans are outstanding to each country, and
new loans are often issued before or as previous loans mature. This results in continuous exposure to countries,
typically without a specific final maturity.
Using the static cohort approach, the marginal default rate in for a cohort formed in is calculated as follows:
Equation 6: Marginal default rate for a static cohort
Where:
di
j
= Number of defaulted countries in for the cohort formed in
n
j
= Number of performing countries on 1 January of
Combining all cohorts for each credit rating, the weighted marginal default rate in for all cohorts formed in
is calculated as:
Equation 7: Marginal default rate for all static cohorts for year i
Where:
K = 
Total number of cohorts for a credit rating, that is, the number of years for which a cohort
has been established for a given credit rating
Equation 8: Cumulative default rate for all static cohorts for year i
for i =1:
for i >1:
3.5.1 Marginal default rates by credit rating category
The observed marginal default rates presented in Table 12 do not follow the same patterns typically observed
in similar tables for sovereign or corporate exposures published by credit rating agencies. Due to the limited
number of defaults over the dataset's history, many cells are either empty or show values of 0.00%, reflecting
either a lack of observations or the absence of defaults. Unlike tables from credit rating agencies, Table 12
includes an NR category, as this classification represents a large part of historical observations. The results for
the NR category demonstrated that unrated countries are not necessarily more likely to default to MDBs than
rated countries.
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 25
Table 12: Marginal default rates by credit rating category and year
During
year
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC/C SD NR
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.27% 1.02% 5.36% 10.00% 1.60%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.28% 0.96% 0.00% 2.00% 1.58%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.45% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.52% 0.70% 0.00% 0.00% 1.39%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.59% 0.64% 0.00% 0.00% 1.14%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.63% 0.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.44% 0.71% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.11% 0.44% 0.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.49%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% 0.11% 0.47% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.00% 0.59% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.44%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.00% 0.69% 0.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.74% 0.49% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.00% 0.80% 0.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
14 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 0.00% 0.88% 0.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
15 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 0.86% 0.49% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.70% 0.73% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.17% 0.00% 0.69% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 0.00% 0.67% 0.76% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
19 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 0.76% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08%
20 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.85% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
21 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.51% 0.40% 1.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
22 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 1.36% 0.00% 0.08%
23 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.94% 0.33% 1.71% 0.00% 0.08%
24 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.06% 0.39% 0.69% 0.17%
25 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
26 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
27 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.22% 0.00% 0.25%
28 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.22% 0.27%
29 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70% 0.29%
30 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.86% 0.00% 0.20%
31 0.00% 0.00% 3.85% 0.00% 0.12%
32 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 0.00% 0.13%
33 0.00% 0.00% 7.14% 0.00% 0.15%
34 0.00% 0.00% 10.00% 0.00% 0.17%
35 0.00% 0.00% 12.50% 0.00% 0.19%
36 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
37 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
38 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
39 0.00% 0.00% 0.41%
40 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
26 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
3.5.2 Cumulative default rates by credit rating category
Table 13: Cumulative default rates by credit rating category and year
During
year
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC/C SD NR
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.27% 1.02% 5.36% 10.00% 1.60%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.00% 0.55% 1.97% 5.36% 11.80% 3.15%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.00% 1.00% 2.64% 5.36% 11.80% 4.62%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.00% 1.51% 3.32% 5.36% 11.80% 5.95%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.06% 2.09% 3.94% 5.36% 11.80% 7.02%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.13% 2.71% 4.59% 5.36% 11.80% 7.84%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.19% 3.14% 5.26% 5.36% 11.80% 8.46%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.36% 0.30% 3.56% 5.92% 5.36% 11.80% 8.91%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.41% 4.02% 6.44% 5.36% 11.80% 9.34%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 0.41% 4.58% 6.99% 5.36% 11.80% 9.73%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.65% 0.41% 5.24% 7.41% 5.36% 11.80% 10.03%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.76% 0.41% 5.94% 7.86% 5.36% 11.80% 10.25%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 0.41% 6.69% 8.35% 5.36% 11.80% 10.48%
14 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 0.41% 7.51% 8.76% 5.36% 11.80% 10.74%
15 0.00% 0.00% 1.17% 0.41% 8.30% 9.21% 5.36% 11.80% 11.04%
16 0.00% 0.00% 1.32% 0.41% 8.94% 9.88% 5.36% 11.80% 11.30%
17 0.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.41% 9.57% 10.60% 5.36% 11.80% 11.51%
18 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 0.41% 10.17% 11.28% 5.36% 11.80% 11.62%
19 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 0.55% 10.86% 12.06% 5.36% 11.80% 11.69%
20 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 0.70% 11.62% 12.83% 5.36% 11.80% 11.78%
21 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 1.20% 11.98% 14.07% 5.36% 11.80% 11.87%
22 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 1.20% 12.88% 15.24% 11.80% 11.94%
23 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 2.14% 13.17% 16.69% 11.80% 12.02%
24 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 3.18% 13.50% 17.27% 12.16%
25 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 4.62% 13.50% 17.27% 12.35%
26 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 5.84% 13.50% 17.27% 12.54%
27 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 6.99% 13.50% 12.76%
28 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 6.99% 15.43% 12.99%
29 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 6.99% 17.71% 13.24%
30 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 9.65% 17.71% 13.42%
31 0.00% 1.68% 13.12% 17.71% 13.52%
32 0.00% 1.68% 17.95% 17.71% 13.63%
33 0.00% 1.68% 23.81% 17.71% 13.76%
34 0.00% 1.68% 31.43% 17.71% 13.90%
35 0.00% 1.68% 40.00% 17.71% 14.06%
36 0.00% 1.68% 40.00% 17.71% 14.25%
37 0.00% 1.68% 40.00% 17.71% 14.46%
38 0.00% 1.68% 40.00% 17.71% 14.73%
39 40.00% 17.71% 15.08%
40 40.00% 17.71% 15.34%
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 27
3.5.3 Marginal default rates by credit rating
Breaking down the rating categories into individual ratings, as shown in Table 14, highlights the impact of the scarcity of default observations.
Table 14: Marginal default rates by credit rating and year
During
year
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C SD NR
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.51% 0.22% 1.36% 1.19% 4.17% 6.25% 10.00% 1.60%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.54% 0.43% 4.88% 0.82% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 1.58%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.28% 0.92% 0.00% 5.00% 0.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.45% 0.97% 0.90% 2.94% 0.52% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.39%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.16% 1.42% 0.00% 3.57% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.14%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.00% 1.29% 0.00% 4.00% 0.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 0.19% 0.54% 1.12% 0.00% 0.66% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.39% 0.21% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.49%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.41% 0.46% 0.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.67% 0.50% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.44%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.95% 0.27% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.01% 0.88% 0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08% 0.96% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 1.06% 0.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
15 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 0.00% 1.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 0.00% 1.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 0.00% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.32% 0.00% 0.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
19 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.98% 0.68% 0.57% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08%
20 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.00% 1.05% 0.82% 0.64% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
21 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.04% 0.38% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
22 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.95% 0.79% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.53% 0.00% 0.08%
23 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.95% 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 0.00% 0.00% 1.96% 0.00% 0.08%
24 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.55% 0.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.67% 0.00% 0.17%
25 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.84% 1.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
26 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
27 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
28 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27%
29 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
30 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
31 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12%
32 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
33 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15%
34 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17%
35 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.19%
36 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
37 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
38 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
39 0.00% 0.00% 0.41%
40 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
28 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
3.5.4 Cumulative default rates by credit rating
Table 15: Cumulative default rates by credit rating and year
During
year
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C SD NR
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.51% 0.22% 1.36% 1.19% 4.17% 6.25% 10.00% 1.60%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.54% 0.43% 4.88% 0.82% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 1.58%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.28% 0.92% 0.00% 5.00% 0.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.45% 0.97% 0.90% 2.94% 0.52% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.39%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.16% 1.42% 0.00% 3.57% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.14%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.00% 1.29% 0.00% 4.00% 0.63% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 0.19% 0.54% 1.12% 0.00% 0.66% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.39% 0.21% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.49%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.41% 0.46% 0.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.47%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.67% 0.50% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.44%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.95% 0.27% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.01% 0.88% 0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08% 0.96% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 1.06% 0.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.55% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
15 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.99% 0.00% 1.45% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 0.00% 1.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15% 0.00% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00% 0.97% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.32% 0.00% 0.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
19 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.98% 0.68% 0.57% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08%
20 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.37% 0.00% 1.05% 0.82% 0.64% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
21 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.04% 0.38% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
22 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.95% 0.79% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.53% 0.00% 0.08%
23 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.95% 0.00% 0.00% 1.02% 0.00% 0.00% 1.96% 0.00% 0.08%
24 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.55% 0.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.67% 0.00% 0.17%
25 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.84% 1.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
26 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
27 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.94% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
28 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.27%
29 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29%
30 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
31 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12%
32 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
33 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 12.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15%
34 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.17%
35 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.19%
36 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21%
37 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
38 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
39 0.00% 0.00% 0.41%
40 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 29
4 Recovery rate statistics
Recovery rates are calculated individually for each default event of a country. According to the definition of
sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending, all loans extended by multilateral development banks (MDBs) to
a country are considered to default simultaneously and return to performing status on the same date. To date,
all defaults covered by the GEMs dataset have resulted in full recovery of overdue principal and interest on
a nominal basis. As a result, the only losses incurred stem from the cost of funding overdue interest, as these
amounts are neither capitalised nor charged to borrowers.
As detailed in Equation 9, the recovery rate is calculated as the ratio of:
A. the discounted payments received between the start and resolution of a default event, plus
B. the discounted value of the remaining outstanding principal immediately after resolution of the default
event, divided by
C. the nominal value of the outstanding principal and interest at the start of the default event.
Discounting is performed using the applicable lending rates, with values discounted back to the time of default.
Equation 9: Calculation of recovery rates (RR)
Where:
D = Start of default event
R = Resolution of default event
i = Numbered period for periods starting after D and ending with R
Pmt
i
= Payment of principal or interest received during
Prn
R
= Remaining outstanding principal amount immediately after R
dr
i
= Discount rate applicable to payments received during
Prn
D
= Outstanding principal amount at time of default (D)
Int
D
= Outstanding interest amount at time of default (D)
The average recovery rates presented in this publication are calculated as simple (unweighted) averages across
the relevant dimensions and categories. Confidence intervals around those averages are not provided, as the
recovery rates are not normally distributed. Instead, the results include ranges and selected percentiles to better
reflect the distribution. Recovery rates for unresolved default events are excluded from the calculations.
30 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
4.1 Recovery rates by year of default
Table 16: Recovery rates by year of default
Year Defaults Recovery rate Year Defaults Recovery rate
1984 1 86.7% 2005
1985 2006 1 100.0%
1986 2 99.0% 2007
1987 5 83.2% 2008
1988 3 96.0% 2009
1989 3 99.1% 2010
1990 2 86.6% 2011
1991 1 97.1% 2012
1992 5 93.1% 2013 1 100.0%
1993 3 94.0% 2014
1994 1 98.4% 2015
1995 2016
1996 2017
1997 1 97.0% 2018 1 99.4%
1998 2 96.3% 2019
1999 1 98.8% 2020
2000 3 99.0% 2021
2001 3 97.6% 2022 1 99.6%
2002 1 98.3% 2023 1 99.6%
2003 2 99.0% 2024 1 100.0%
2004 1 98.1% Total 46 95.1%
Figure 15: Recovery rates by year of default
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 31
4.2 Recovery rates by region
4.2.1 Recovery rates by World Bank region
The regional classification of countries used in this section follows the World Bank Group's framework. The
GEMs dataset does not currently contain any observations for recovery rates of countries in South Asia.
Table 17: Recovery rates by World Bank region
World Bank region
Unique
countries
Default
events
Average
recovery
rate
Minimum
observation
10th
Percentile
25th
Percentile
Median
75th
Percentile
90th
Percentile
Maximum
observation
East Asia & Pacific 3 3 95.4% 93.1% 93.1% 93.1% 93.1% 96.6% 98.6% 100.0%
Europe & Central Asia 3 3 88.4% 73.3% 77.7% 84.3% 95.3% 96.0% 96.4% 96.7%
Latin America & Caribbean 8 14 97.4% 86.7% 94.7% 96.2% 98.5% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0%
Middle East & North Africa 3 3 84.4% 74.1% 75.1% 76.6% 79.1% 89.5% 95.8% 100.0%
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa 13 23 95.8% 47.1% 92.8% 97.1% 98.4% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
Overall 30 46 95.1% 47.1% 88.5% 95.6% 98.1% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0%
Figure 16: Recovery rates by World Bank region
32 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
4.2.2 Recovery rates by continent
Table 18 and Figure 17 present recovery rates by continent.
Table 18: Recovery rates by continent
Continent
Unique
countries
Default
events
Average
recovery
rate
Minimum
observation
10th
Percentile
25th
Percentile
Median
75th
Percentile
90th
Percentile
Maximum
observation
Africa 13 23 95.8% 47.1% 92.8% 97.1% 98.4% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
Asia 4 4 86.6% 74.1% 75.6% 77.8% 86.1% 94.8% 97.9% 100.0%
Europe 3 3 88.4% 73.3% 77.7% 84.3% 95.3% 96.0% 96.4% 96.7%
North America 5 8 96.6% 86.7% 92.1% 95.3% 98.5% 99.6% 99.8% 100.0%
Oceania 2 2 96.5% 93.1% 93.8% 94.8% 96.5% 98.3% 99.3% 100.0%
South America 3 6 98.5% 95.7% 96.7% 97.7% 98.9% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Overall 30 46 95.1% 47.1% 88.5% 95.6% 98.1% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0%
Figure 17: Recovery rates by continent
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 33
4.3 Recovery rates by income group
Country income group classifications for the year of each default are based on the World Bank Group's
historical income group database. Five countries in the dataset were not classified by the World Bank Group
at the time of their defaults. The GEMs dataset does not currently contain any observations for recovery rates
of high-income countries.
Table 19: Recovery rates by income group
Income group at time of
default
Unique
countries
Default
events
Average
recovery
rate
Minimum
observation
10th
Percentile
25th
Percentile
Median
75th
Percentile
90th
Percentile
Maximum
observation
High income
Upper middle income 6 8 96.0% 74.1% 90.2% 98.0% 99.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Lower middle income 13 18 96.6% 79.1% 93.6% 95.6% 97.8% 99.7% 100.0% 100.0%
Low income 10 15 94.4% 47.1% 91.5% 96.9% 98.1% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
Not available 5 5 90.2% 73.3% 78.7% 86.7% 93.1% 97.9% 99.2% 100.0%
Overall 30 46 95.1% 47.1% 88.5% 95.6% 98.1% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0%
Figure 18: Recovery rates by income group
34 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
5 Rating migration rate statistics
The rating migrations presented in this publication are based on GEMs ratings assigned to countries, as
described in Section 3.4. Only years in which a country has exposure to at least one multilateral development
bank (MDB) are included. Rating migrations are captured as annual snapshots taken on 1 January of each
year over the 41-year observation period. For example, the one-year migration rates compare a country's
rating in year i to its ratings in year i + 1. Intra-year rating changes are not considered.
In addition to the GEMs ratings shown in migration tables by rating categories  aligned with external
rating categories  the SD category in Table 20 signifies countries' defaults to lenders except MDBs, such as
commercial banks or investors in bond issuances. Table 21 displays the migrations in and out of non-accrual
status, which reflects defaults to MDBs. Since countries eventually come out of non-accrual status, it is not
considered an absorbing state, and so the migration table includes countries' transitions from non-accrual
back to performing ratings.
5.1 Annual upgrade vs. downgrade ratio
Figure 19 shows the yearly credit rating upgrades and downgrades of countries in the GEMs dataset.
Transitions into and out of the NR category are excluded from the calculation, as they do not reflect changes in
creditworthiness. This exclusion also explains the limited rating changes in earlier years, when many countries
in the dataset were still unrated.
The ratio of the yearly rating changes has been calculated as the difference in the number of upgrades and
downgrades over the total number of rating changes.
Figure 19: Annual upgrade vs. downgrade ratio
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 35
5.2 Rating migration rates
Table 20: One-year rating migration rates
From/to Observations AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C SD
Not
rated
AAA 0
AA+ 0
AA 8 87.5% 12.5%
AA- 39 5.1% 79.5% 10.3% 2.6% 2.6%
A+ 52 17.3% 73.1% 9.6%
A 106 10.4% 80.2% 5.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9%
A- 145 13.1% 79.3% 4.8% 2.8%
BBB+ 119 15.1% 73.1% 11.8%
BBB 170 1.2% 14.7% 71.8% 8.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.6%
BBB- 221 0.5% 12.7% 75.6% 8.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
BB+ 184 1.6% 17.4% 69.6% 6.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.5%
BB 194 1.0% 15.5% 70.1% 9.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
BB- 244 1.2% 0.8% 9.8% 69.3% 13.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.8%
B+ 359 0.3% 1.4% 10.0% 73.5% 10.0% 4.2% 0.6%
B 389 0.8% 2.8% 10.8% 70.7% 8.2% 4.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
B- 421 1.0% 2.9% 8.3% 76.2% 3.3% 1.9% 5.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
CCC+ 149 0.7% 0.7% 8.7% 12.8% 61.1% 9.4% 5.4% 1.3%
CCC 43 4.7% 7.0% 30.2% 34.9% 4.7% 4.7% 7.0% 7.0%
CCC- 615 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 89.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%
CC 12 8.3% 16.7% 8.3% 25.0% 33.3% 8.3%
C 16 12.5% 6.3% 12.5% 18.8% 43.8% 6.3%
SD 25 4.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 12.0% 8.0% 52.0%
Not rated 1 378 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 91.5%
36 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Table 21 provides a separate migration matrix for movements of countries into and out of non-accrual status as this status is not available in external rating scales.
Table 21: One-year rating migration into and out of non-accrual status
From/to Observations AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C SD
Non-
accrual
Not
rated
AAA 0
AA+ 0
AA 8 0.0%
AA- 39 0.0%
A+ 52 0.0%
A 106 0.0%
A- 145 0.0%
BBB+ 119 0.0%
BBB 170 0.0%
BBB- 221 0.2%
BB+ 184 0.0%
BB 194 0.0%
BB- 244 0.0%
B+ 359 0.0%
B 389 0.3%
B- 421 0.5%
CCC+ 149 0.2%
CCC 43 1.4%
CCC- 615 1.2%
CC 12 4.2%
C 16 6.3%
SD 25 10.0%
Non-accrual 331 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 4.2% 89.1% 5.1%
Not rated 1 378 1.6%
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 37
Figure 20 illustrates the evolution of GEMs ratings for countries during the five years leading to a non-accrual event. Only the ratings for countries that entered non-
accrual status are included.
Figure 20: Five-year rating migration to default
38 Default and recovery statistics: Sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 1984-2024
Table 22: Two-year rating migration rates
From/to Observations AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C SD
Not
rated
AAA 0
AA+ 0
AA 8 75.0% 12.5% 12.5%
AA- 38 10.5% 57.9% 26.3% 2.6% 2.6%
A+ 49 30.6% 46.9% 18.4% 2.0% 2.0%
A 100 1.0% 21.0% 61.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
A- 144 0.7% 20.8% 66.0% 7.6% 3.5% 0.7% 0.7%
BBB+ 115 3.5% 20.9% 57.4% 14.8% 3.5%
BBB 162 4.9% 17.3% 57.4% 12.3% 5.6% 1.9% 0.6%
BBB- 216 0.9% 4.6% 18.5% 56.5% 11.6% 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5%
BB+ 177 0.6% 4.5% 26.0% 50.3% 10.2% 4.5% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1%
BB 189 5.8% 22.2% 49.7% 13.8% 5.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
BB- 235 2.1% 2.1% 14.0% 49.8% 19.1% 7.7% 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.3%
B+ 343 0.3% 0.9% 3.2% 13.4% 57.1% 15.5% 6.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
B 375 1.1% 0.5% 5.3% 13.9% 53.3% 14.9% 4.8% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 1.1% 1.1%
B- 399 2.0% 7.5% 11.5% 58.9% 6.3% 2.8% 8.5% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.5%
CCC+ 137 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.8% 18.2% 43.1% 9.5% 6.6% 0.7% 1.5% 1.5%
CCC 41 12.2% 9.8% 31.7% 14.6% 9.8% 7.3% 4.9% 9.8%
CCC- 593 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 2.9% 9.1% 2.2% 0.3% 82.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
CC 7 14.3% 14.3% 28.6% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3%
C 16 6.3% 6.3% 18.8% 18.8% 25.0% 18.8% 6.3%
SD 25 4.0% 8.0% 16.0% 4.0% 20.0% 12.0% 8.0% 28.0%
Not rated 1 374 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 0.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 83.2%
Characteristics of sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending 39
Table 23: Ten-year rating migration rates
From/to Observations AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C SD
Not
rated
AAA 0
AA+ 0
AA 8 37.5% 25.0% 25.0% 12.5%
AA- 26 3.8% 11.5% 26.9% 46.2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
A+ 32 9.4% 6.3% 31.3% 21.9% 18.8% 3.1% 6.3% 3.1%
A 79 7.6% 12.7% 20.3% 3.8% 16.5% 5.1% 2.5% 1.3% 11.4% 3.8% 5.1% 6.3% 2.5% 1.3%
A- 109 0.9% 2.8% 9.2% 9.2% 11.0% 33.0% 9.2% 6.4% 9.2% 8.3% 0.9%
BBB+ 82 3.7% 8.5% 11.0% 12.2% 23.2% 12.2% 12.2% 9.8% 6.1% 1.2%
BBB 109 0.9% 9.2% 8.3% 15.6% 21.1% 13.8% 3.7% 4.6% 5.5% 7.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 2.8% 0.9%
BBB- 154 0.6% 5.2% 5.8% 10.4% 14.9% 21.4% 13.6% 8.4% 5.8% 8.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2.6%
BB+ 133 2.3% 6.0% 6.0% 8.3% 18.8% 12.0% 9.8% 8.3% 9.0% 3.0% 8.3% 6.0% 2.3%
BB 143 0.7% 0.7% 4.9% 13.3% 16.8% 12.6% 18.2% 3.5% 17.5% 3.5% 4.9% 1.4% 0.7% 1.4%
BB- 153 0.7% 0.7% 10.5% 5.2% 5.9% 13.1% 11.8% 15.0% 9.8% 10.5% 7.8% 4.6% 2.6% 0.7% 1.3%
B+ 224 0.4% 2.2% 4.9% 3.1% 3.6% 8.5% 26.3% 20.1% 13.8% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 4.5% 0.4%
B 202 0.5% 2.0% 4.5% 0.5% 3.0% 9.9% 17.8% 26.2% 16.3% 5.0% 2.5% 5.4% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5%
B- 226 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8% 13.7% 12.8% 13.7% 23.9% 4.9% 1.8% 17.3% 0.4% 0.4% 3.1% 1.3%
CCC+ 75 1.3% 1.3% 4.0% 5.3% 2.7% 25.3% 34.7% 17.3% 1.3% 5.3% 1.3%
CCC 15 6.7% 20.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 33.3% 13.3%
CCC- 407 0.2% 4.9% 7.4% 10.6% 21.9% 3.4% 2.7% 46.2% 0.5% 1.5% 0.7%
CC 4 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
C 7 14.3% 14.3% 14.3% 42.9% 14.3%
SD 14 7.1% 14.3% 7.1% 14.3% 21.4% 28.6% 7.1%
Not rated 1 339 0.3% 0.6% 1.8% 2.5% 1.5% 1.7% 4.7% 4.3% 5.1% 4.7% 7.7% 7.2% 7.1% 3.1% 0.5% 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 31.8%
DEFAULT AND RECOVERY STATISTICS
SOVEREIGN AND
SOVEREIGN-GUARANTEED
LENDING
1984-2024
European Investment Bank
98-100, boulevard Konrad Adenauer
L-2950 Luxembourg
+352 4379-1
www.eib.org  info@eib.org
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pdf: QH-01-25-043-EN-N ISBN 978-92-861-6012-7 doi:10.2867/2100745
